Enterprise AI Analysis

Optimized Decision Model for Soil-Moisture Control Lower Limits and Evapotranspiration-Based Irrigation Replenishment Ratios Based on AquaCrop-OSPy, PyFAO56, and NSGA-II and Its Application

As water resources are becoming increasingly scarce in the North China Plain, irrigation strategies that simultaneously improve grain yield and reduce irrigation water input are needed for winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production. Current irrigation decision rules are based either on fixed soil moisture thresholds or on evapotranspiration (ET)-based ratios applied uniformly across the growing season, limiting their flexibility for growth stage-specific irrigation management. In this study, a multi-objective simulation optimization framework was developed to jointly optimize soil moisture lower control limits (irrigation trigger thresholds) and evapotranspiration-based irrigation replenishment ratios across key winter wheat growth stages. The framework integrated the AquaCrop-OSPy crop model with the PyFAO56 soil moisture balance, irrigation scheduling model and the NSGA-II evolutionary optimization algorithm. A field experiment was conducted during the 2024–2025 growing season in Laoling City, Shandong Province, China, employing a four-dense-one-sparse strip cropping pattern with two irrigation treatments: T1 (subsurface sprinkler irrigation) and T2 (shallow subsurface drip irrigation). The AquaCrop-OSPy model was calibrated and validated using measured canopy cover, aboveground biomass, grain yield, and soil moisture content in the 0-60 cm soil layer. Simulated canopy cover and grain yield showed good agreement with observations, with the coefficient of determination (R2) ranging from 0.87 to 0.94. For grain yield, the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) ranged from 2.24% to 3.75%, and the root mean square error (RMSE) ranged from 0.29 to 0.54 tha⁻¹. For aboveground biomass, R2 was 0.99, while RMSE ranged from 1.02 to 1.11 tha⁻¹, and NRMSE ranged from 14.25% to 15.49%. The PyFAO56 irrigation strategy model simulated average root-zone soil-moisture dynamics with satisfactory accuracy, with an R2 of 0.86 and an RMSE of 5%. Multi-objective optimization (maximizing yield while minimizing irrigation volume) generated 23 Pareto-optimal irrigation strategies, with irrigation volumes ranging from 51 to 128 mm, corresponding yields ranging from 9.8 to 10.8 tha⁻¹, and irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE) ranging from 0.08 to 0.19 tha⁻¹·mm⁻¹. Correlation analysis within the Pareto set indicated that soil-moisture control lower limits during the regreening-jointing stage and higher soil-moisture control lower limits during the flowering-maturity stage were key controlling factors for achieving high yields and irrigation water use efficiency. The Entropy-Weighted Ranked Minimum Distance method identified an optimal irrigation scheme involving two irrigations (one at the end of the jointing stage and another at the beginning of the grain filling stage) involving an irrigation depth of 75 mm, achieving a simulated yield of 10.4 t·ha⁻¹ and an IWUE of 0.16 t·ha⁻¹·mm⁻¹. The proposed AquaCrop-PyFAO56-NSGA-II framework provides a flexible, process-based workflow for jointly optimizing irrigation control thresholds and evapotranspiration-based irrigation replenishment ratios across different winter wheat growth stages. Under the monitored conditions of the 2024–2025 wet season, the framework identified a two-irrigation strategy that balanced grain yield and irrigation input. This study should, therefore, be regarded as a proof-of-concept evaluation conducted in a well-instrumented single-site field setting rather than as a universally transferable recommendation. Because model calibration, within-season validation, and optimization were all based on one wet growing season at one site, the derived stage-specific thresholds, Pareto front, and S5 recommendation are most applicable to hydro-climatic conditions similar to the study year and should be further tested across contrasting year-types and locations before broader extrapolation.