Enterprise AI Analysis
Assessing the health impact of the national air pollution control programme at city level: the case of madrid
This paper aims to provide scientific support for decision-making regarding improvements in air quality by evaluating pollution reduction measures included in the 1st Spanish National Air Pollution Control Programme (SAPCP) at the city level. The study assesses the health impacts of the main air pollutants—particulate matter (PM), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3)—on the population of Madrid. Two scenarios are analysed for 2030: one consisting of a package of existing measures (EM) and the other including additional measures (AM). The most significant benefits identified in the AM scenario indicate a potential reduction of 4643 premature deaths, which is more than double that of the EM scenario. Regarding social costs, considering the additional measures in package AM, the benefits could amount to approximately €1189 million (VOLY) and €20,574 million (VSL).
Executive Impact: Key Metrics at a Glance
The implementation of Spain's National Air Pollution Control Programme, especially the ambitious Additional Measures (AM) scenario, is projected to yield substantial positive health and economic outcomes for Madrid. These interventions directly translate into a significant reduction in premature deaths and considerable avoided external costs.
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Premature Deaths Avoided (AM)
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Avoided External Costs (VSL, AM)
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NO2 Contribution to Avoided Deaths (AM)
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Premature Deaths Avoided (EM)
Deep Analysis & Enterprise Applications
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Addressing Air Quality in Madrid
Air pollution, particularly in urban areas, poses significant public health risks, including increased mortality and morbidity due to pollutants like PM2.5, O3, and NO2. The European Union estimated 239,000 premature deaths from PM2.5, 48,000 from NO2, and 70,000 from O3 in 2022. This study aims to provide scientific support for decision-making by evaluating pollution reduction measures from the 1st Spanish National Air Pollution Control Programme (SAPCP) at the city level, focusing on Madrid. The analysis identifies key benefits and challenges in improving urban air quality.
Impact Pathway Approach & Modelling
The study employs the impact pathway approach to assess costs and benefits, moving from emission reductions to monetized health impacts. Air-quality modelling, using the CHIMERE chemistry transport model, provides pollutant concentrations for four nested domains, down to a 1x1 km² resolution for Madrid. Health impacts on mortality are quantified using Concentration-Response Functions (CRFs) based on HRAPIE recommendations, considering both long-term and short-term exposure. Demographic and health data, disaggregated by neighbourhood, age, and gender, ensure high spatial resolution for the analysis.
Enterprise Process Flow
Changes in Emissions (EM/AM Scenarios)
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Air Quality Modelling (CHIMERE)
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City Level Assessment (Madrid)
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Health Impact Assessment & External Costs
Significant Reductions in Premature Deaths
The analysis projects substantial avoidable long-term mortalities. In the Existing Measures (EM) scenario, 2,093 premature deaths would be avoided. The Additional Measures (AM) scenario significantly amplifies this benefit, preventing 4,307 premature deaths. NO2 reductions account for the highest proportion of these benefits (61% in EM, 78% in AM), while PM2.5 reductions are also critical, contributing 39% in EM and 22% in AM. The spatial distribution shows higher benefits in areas with intensive road traffic and higher population density, particularly within the M-30 ring road and S-SW urban roads.
4643+
Total Premature Deaths Avoided (AM Scenario)
Monetized Health Benefits & Short-Term Impacts
Beyond long-term benefits, the study also quantifies short-term mortality impacts. While NO2 acute exposure reductions lead to avoided deaths, there is a projected slight deterioration concerning O3, due to reduced removal by nitrogen monoxide. Despite this, the overall monetized benefits are substantial. For the EM scenario, avoided external costs are estimated at €9,917 million (VSL), while the AM scenario projects even greater benefits, reaching €20,574 million (VSL). This highlights the considerable economic value of proactive air quality policies.
€20,574M
Avoided External Costs (VSL, AM Scenario)
Strategic Policy Scenarios: EM vs. AM
The study evaluates two distinct policy scenarios for the year 2030, derived from Spain's 1st National Air Pollution Control Programme (SAPCP). These scenarios inform strategic decision-making by contrasting baseline interventions with more ambitious measures aimed at achieving 2030 emission reduction commitments. The AM scenario targets pollutants like PM, NO2, and O3 across sectors including energy, transport, industry, residential, waste, and agriculture, demonstrating a comprehensive approach to air quality improvement.
| Scenario | Description | Focus | Key Outcome (Avoided Premature Deaths) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Existing Measures (EM) | Measures implemented under current legislation up to 2019, continued until 2030. | Baseline emission reduction pathway. | 2,093 (mean) |
| Additional Measures (AM) | More ambitious scenario incorporating cost-beneficial strategic measures to meet 2030 emission commitments. | Achieving compliance with 2030 emission ceilings across various sectors. | 4,307 (mean) |
Acknowledged Limitations & Future Directions
The study acknowledges several limitations, including the assumption of a static exposed population, which does not account for daily mobility patterns. There is also potential for overestimation due to double-counting of pollutant effects where correlations exist. Future research will focus on street-level analysis, incorporating pedestrian mobility models, and leveraging advanced AI and mobile measurements to improve exposure assessment accuracy. Additionally, ongoing updates to the SAPCP and WHO recommendations for Concentration-Response Functions will refine future impact assessments. Addressing socioeconomic disparities in air quality impacts remains a key area for policy development.
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