Enterprise AI Analysis
Design and Analysis of Small-Scale Hydrogen Valleys Success Factors: A Stratified Network-Based Hybrid Fuzzy Approach
This study proposes a Z-number-based fuzzy cognitive mapping approach, extended with Z-DEMATEL, to identify and prioritize success factors for small-scale hydrogen valleys in developing countries. It highlights financial factors (Government Incentives, Infrastructure Investment Cost, Land Acquisition Cost) as most critical, followed by social and technical dimensions (Skilled Workforce, Regional Energy Supply). The methodology integrates fuzzy logic and Z-numbers to manage uncertainty and interdependencies among factors, providing a robust decision-making framework and strategic roadmap.
Executive Impact & Quantitative Insights
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Cronbach's Alpha (Internal Consistency)
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Influences Identified Between Factors
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Top Ranked Success Factor
Deep Analysis & Enterprise Applications
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Overview & Problem Statement
The global shift towards cleaner energy highlights hydrogen's potential for energy security and climate change mitigation. Developing countries like Turkey face challenges in energy independence, making small-scale hydrogen valleys a viable solution. This study addresses the complex decision-making process for establishing these valleys, considering technical, financial, environmental, social, and political factors under uncertainty.
Methodology Deep Dive
This research employs a Z-number-based Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) approach, extended with Z-number Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (Z-DEMATEL). This hybrid methodology allows for modeling interdependencies among success factors, structured prioritization with multi-expert perspectives, and robustness against uncertainties in linguistic judgments and expert reliability. Cronbach Alpha Coefficient test ensures data consistency.
Key Findings & Implications
Financial factors, particularly government incentives, infrastructure investment cost, and land acquisition cost, emerged as the most critical for small-scale hydrogen valley design. The study also highlighted the importance of skilled workforce availability and regional energy supply, emphasizing policy support, infrastructure readiness, and workforce development for successful hydrogen valley implementation.
Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analyses were conducted to verify the robustness and stability of the model's results. By systematically changing individual input parameters, the analysis confirmed that the model remains interpretable and resilient under varying conditions, with main success factors significantly impacting the system's dynamics, while activation vector changes had a smaller effect on relative rankings.
Critical Factor Spotlight
Financial Factors Most Critical Success CategoryEnterprise Process Flow
Literature Analysis
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Delphi Technique
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Data Gathering 1 (Z-DEMATEL Input)
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Fuzzification Process 1
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Cronbach Alpha Test
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Z-DEMATEL Technique
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Data Gathering 2 (Z-FCM Input)
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Fuzzification Process 2
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Z-FCM Technique
| Factor | Weight | Rank | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| C13: Government Incentives | 0.01358 | 1 | Crucial for initial investment and sustainability. |
| C15: Infrastructure Investment Cost | 0.01357 | 2 | High capital outlay requires robust planning and existing infrastructure assessment. |
| C14: Land Acquisition Cost | 0.01355 | 3 | Significant impact on overall project budget and location feasibility. |
| C12: Availability of Skilled Workforce | 0.01355 | 4 | Essential for operational efficiency and long-term success. |
| C44: Regional Energy Supply | 0.01347 | 5 | Directly related to infrastructure costs and energy security. |
Turkey's Energy Transition Challenge
Turkey, a developing country, faces increasing energy demand and high dependency on imported fossil fuels (90% crude oil, 99% natural gas). Hydrogen valleys are critical to diversify energy sources, enhance energy security, and reduce carbon emissions. Its strategic logistical position offers potential as an energy hub, but low domestic reserves necessitate strategic investments in renewables. This context highlights the relevance of the study's findings for similar developing nations aiming for energy independence.
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