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Enterprise AI Analysis: Financial risk identification and accounting analysis method of listed companies based on machine learning

Enterprise AI Analysis

Financial risk identification and accounting analysis method of listed companies based on machine learning

This study explores machine learning-based methods for early warning of financial risk and decision support for listed companies. It utilizes financial statement data and market information to build a multidimensional feature set, employing machine learning to create a financial risk identification system. Key empirical results show the machine learning model significantly outperforms traditional statistical methods, achieving an accuracy of 92%, recall of 88%, and an F1 score of 0.90, with a 15% lower prediction error. This validates machine learning's advantages in handling complex financial data, improving risk identification accuracy, and offering a more precise reference for investors and regulators.

Executive Impact: Key Performance Indicators

0 Model Accuracy
0 Recall Rate
0 F1 Score
0 Prediction Error Reduction

Deep Analysis & Enterprise Applications

Select a topic to dive deeper, then explore the specific findings from the research, rebuilt as interactive, enterprise-focused modules.

Against the backdrop of global economic integration, the financial market is becoming increasingly complex. As a crucial aspect of the market economy, the stability and transparency of listed companies' financial situations directly impact market confidence and investment decisions. In recent years, financial scandals have occurred frequently, which not only have seriously damaged the interests of investors but also have had a significant impact on the financial market, highlighting the importance of financial risk identification and management for listed companies [1, 2]. Traditional financial analysis methods, such as ratio analysis and trend analysis, can provide insight into the financial status and operating results of enterprises to a certain extent. However, they rely on manual judgment and experience, and struggle to cope with processing massive amounts of data. In a complex and changeable market environment, it often lags behind the occurrence of risks. Potential financial risks cannot be identified in a timely and comprehensive manner [4, 5]. With the rapid development of big data and artificial intelligence technologies, machine learning methods have become increasingly widespread in the financial field, demonstrating powerful data processing and pattern recognition capabilities [7]. This study aims to build an efficient and accurate financial risk early warning system by collecting and processing data from multiple dimensions such as financial statement data, market information, and industry characteristics of listed companies. Machine learning algorithms are used to construct financial risk identification models to solve the shortcomings of traditional methods in real-time monitoring and risk prediction. The proposed method integrates decision trees, random forests, and XGBoost, combines CBOW/Skip-gram word vectors and attention mechanisms, and introduces PCA dimensionality reduction and Focal Loss to handle high-dimensional, unbalanced financial data. It also applies machine learning to emerging business models and complex financial instruments, broadening the scope of analysis. The system achieves an accuracy of 0.9459, recall rate of 0.8418, and AUC of 0.9641, significantly outperforming traditional models.

To achieve a good learning effect, machine learning algorithms require data preprocessing, feature selection, model training, evaluation, and adjustment [11, 12]. Decision trees are fundamental algorithms for classification and regression, mimicking human decision-making processes. Random forest improves diversity and generalization by constructing multiple decision trees through playback sampling and random feature selection [24, 25]. XGBoost, an optimized version of GBDT, enhances training speed and prediction performance by iteratively correcting errors of weak learners [26]. For natural language processing, CBOW (Continuous Bag of Words) and Skip-gram models predict words based on context to capture semantic relationships [Eq. (1)]. The attention mechanism calculates similarity between Query, Key, and Value to form a comprehensive prediction model [Eqs. (2) & (3)]. Focal Loss addresses sample imbalance by assigning different weights to samples [Eqs. (4) & (5)].

The system integrates basic financial management functions (vouchers, fixed assets, salary processing) with a core function of risk control analysis using machine learning algorithms [38, 39]. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used for feature extraction and dimensionality reduction by analyzing the covariance structure of multidimensional data, transforming it into a set of new feature vectors [29, 30]. PCA identifies the main direction of data by selecting feature vectors with maximum variance [Eqs. (6), (7), (8), (9)], retaining most information while simplifying complexity. The overall computing architecture involves multiple multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for feature extraction, node and edge feature embedding, and a GNN layer for processing. The system also uses a 'timeline cutting method' for data segmentation: past data for training and future data for testing, ensuring predictive performance evaluation.

Model performance is evaluated using accuracy, recall rate, and F1 score [Eq. (10)]. In binary classification, samples are categorized into true examples (TP), false positive examples (FP), true negative examples (TN), and false negative examples (FN). True Positive Rate (TPR) and False Positive Rate (FPR) are calculated [Eqs. (11) & (12)]. The machine learning model showed an accuracy of 0.9459, recall of 0.8418, F1 score of 0.4822, and AUC of 0.9641, significantly outperforming traditional methods (Table 2). Resampling methods, particularly machine learning algorithms, notably improved prediction effect with accuracy increasing by 4.3% and AUC by 2.3% (Fig. 3). The fusion model, especially with XGBoost, showed significant improvements in accuracy and F1 value, surpassing traditional models. XGBoost identified 'equity pledge ratio' as the core risk indicator (Fig. 9). The model training loss curves indicate efficient parameter optimization with SSA (Fig. 5). The model converges after ten iterations, with AUC exceeding 99% (Fig. 11).

0.9459 Overall Model Accuracy

Enterprise Process Flow

Data Preprocessing
Feature Selection
Model Training
Evaluation & Adjustment
Risk Identification & Analysis
Comparison Dimension Traditional Statistical Methods Single Machine Learning Models Proposed Fusion ML Method
Core Architecture
  • Linear assumption-based; no complex feature interaction
  • Single tree/basic ensemble; only structured data; no text integration
  • Tree-based ensemble (DT + RF + XG-Boost) + text processing (CBOW/Skip-gram) + Attention + PCA + Focal Loss; supports structured + unstructured data
Accuracy
  • 0.9377
  • DT: <0.90 (overfitting); RF/XGBoost: ~0.92-0.93
  • 0.9459 (+0.82% vs. traditional; +1.5% vs. single XGBoost)
Recall
  • 0.6892
  • RF: ~0.75-0.80; XGBoost: ~0.80-0.82
  • 0.8418 (+15.26% vs. traditional; +2.18% vs. single XGBoost)
AUC
  • 0.8298 (weak risk differentiation)
  • RF: ~0.85-0.88; XGBoost: ~0.90-0.92
  • 0.9641 (+16.18% vs. traditional; +4.41% vs. single XGBoost)
Equity Pledge Ratio XGBoost Core Risk Indicator

Future Directions & AI Integration

The study concludes by outlining future enhancements for financial risk identification. These include developing tampering identification algorithms, using GANs to enhance samples, and expanding ESG data sources. Model optimization will focus on integrating migration and integrated learning to shorten training cycles and customize early warning modules for emerging businesses. Further technological integration involves combining with blockchain for data authenticity and utilizing smart contracts for automated early warnings, promoting intelligent risk management.

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Your AI Implementation Roadmap

A structured approach to integrating advanced AI for financial risk identification, ensuring seamless adoption and maximum impact.

Phase 1: Discovery & Data Integration

Comprehensive assessment of existing financial data systems, including ERPs, CRMs, and legacy databases. Secure and efficient integration of multi-source data (financial statements, market info, text) with advanced data cleaning and preprocessing for quality assurance. Establish secure API connections for real-time data feeds.

Phase 2: Model Customization & Training

Tailoring of the ensemble machine learning model (DT, RF, XGBoost) with attention mechanisms and Focal Loss to your specific business context and risk profiles. Utilize historical enterprise data to train and validate the model, ensuring high accuracy and robust performance in identifying unique financial risk indicators.

Phase 3: Deployment & Continuous Monitoring

Seamless deployment of the AI risk identification system within your existing infrastructure. Implement continuous monitoring of financial indicators and real-time alerts for emerging risks. Establish feedback loops for model retraining and adaptation to new market conditions, ensuring long-term predictive accuracy.

Phase 4: Strategic Integration & Training

Integrate AI-driven insights into your financial decision-making workflows, empowering managers with accurate and timely risk intelligence. Provide comprehensive training for your teams on interpreting AI outputs and leveraging the system for proactive risk management and accounting analysis. Develop custom dashboards for intuitive data visualization.

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